By Jeffrey M. Anderson
The Oscars are weirder than ever. This year the awards included major
snubs in nearly every category, and what remains appears to have been
mainly driven by successful marketing campaigns. Moreover, only a
certain kind of movie has even been considered. Why couldn't voters
admit that blockbusters like Skyfall, The Dark Knight Rises, and
The Avengers and comedies like Bernie and Moonrise Kingdom were
actually among the best movies of the year, rather than the more
"important" dramas? Happily, though, many good films have been
nominated, and many good films actually have a chance to win. Here are
the S.F. Examiner's annual picks, predictions, and write-ins.
See my reviews of the winners:
Argo
Amour
Anna Karenina
Brave
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Searching for Sugar Man
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Short Films
Best Picture
Of the nine nominees, only two really deserve
to be here: Zero Dark Thirty (the actual best movie of the year) and
the remarkable Lincoln. Normally, Lincoln would appear to be the
logical winner, given its length, significance, and overall number of
nominees. But Argo is the front-runner, and has been all along. It was
derailed briefly when Ben Affleck was snubbed in the directing category,
but snapped back on track when the film won the Golden Globe. While the
movie has been mistaken for an Important Film, it's still an excellent
popcorn muncher, and if it wins, it will hardly be the worst movie ever
to capture the top spot.
Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Write-In: Moonrise Kingdom
The Winner: Argo
Best Actor
With snubs for Jack Black (Bernie) and John
Hawkes (The Sessions), this category is pretty dry. We can safely
eliminate two-time winner Denzel Washington (Flight), first-time
nominee Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) and third-time
nominee Joaquin Phoenix (The Master). Hugh Jackman has a shot, since
he makes a perfect Jean Valjean in the highly flawed Les Miserables,
and since everyone just seems to like him so much. But the front-runner
is Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln); he has taken the lion's share of the
awards season glory for the way he disappeared completely into honest
Abe. It will be his third Oscar.
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Who Should Win:
Daniel Day-Lewis
Write-In: Jack Black, Bernie
The Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress
The year's best performance, Rachel Weisz in
The Deep Blue Sea, was sadly not nominated, and we can eliminate the
nine year-old Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) and
Naomi Watts for the grueling disaster flick The Impossible. The 85
year-old Emmanuelle Riva has a shot due to her age and her legendary
status. But how many Academy voters had ever heard of her, or her
classic films (Hiroshima, Mon Amour)? No, the front-runners are
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) and Jennifer Lawrence (Silver
Linings Playbook). They're both extremely strong performances, but
Lawrence will take it. She's the bigger star (The Hunger Games made
tons of money) and she has an unbeatable Weinstein Oscar campaign behind
her.
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Who Should Win:
Jessica Chastain
Write-In: Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue
Sea
The Winner: Jennifer Lawrence
Best Director
The Academy often gets this category wrong,
but this year takes the cake. It appears as if there were a math error:
Kathryn Bigelow, Ben Affleck, and Paul Thomas Anderson were all snubbed,
even though they received DGA nominations from roughly the same body of
voters. From among the remaining nominees, only Steven Spielberg really
deserves to win. He's won twice before, but his terrific Lincoln is
currently the highest-grossing of the nominees and also has the most
nominations. Ang Lee also has a shot for Life of Pi, though that movie
seems to be more of a feat of cinematography and visual effects than
directing. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) has the
Weinsteins behind him, so he can't be counted out. Michael Haneke
(Amour) will win Best Foreign Film instead, and we can eliminate Benh
Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) entirely.
Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg
Who Should Win:
Steven Spielberg
Write-In: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark
Thirty
The Winner: Ang Lee
Best Supporting Actor
All five of the nominees in this
category are previous Oscar winners, and so far they have split the
previous awards-season glory between them. There are no clear
front-runners. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) has the most points
so far, but his film seems to have lost its momentum. Alan Arkin
(Argo) and Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) have both won in the
last six years, but Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) hasn't
won since 1980; and you can never underestimate the power of the
Weinsteins. Yet by a tiny margin Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) appears to
have the best shot at winning, simply for standing out among an amazing
cast of character actors.
Who Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones
Who Should Win: Tommy
Lee Jones
Write-In: Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike or
Bernie
The Winner: Christoph Waltz
Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway is a great actress,
usually bringing an organic, intuitive quality to even her worst movies.
She's by far the best thing in Les Miserables, and performing her
character's signature song in one long take (complete with tears) is an
impressive feat. She has won most of the awards season accolades, she's
a prior nominee, and she's a shoo-in. As for the others, Amy Adams was
good in The Master, but was much better -- and totally ignored -- in
Trouble with the Curve. Helen Hunt (The Sessions) and Sally Field
(Lincoln) already have their Oscars, and Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings
Playbook) will have to keep hoping for another day.
Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway
Who Should Win: Anne
Hathaway
Write-In: Shirley MacLaine, Bernie
The Winner: Anne Hathaway
Best Screenplay (Original)
Sadly, we can eliminate the
best nominee in this category, Moonrise Kingdom, as well as Flight,
since neither is nominated for Best Picture. For some reason, people
seem to like the depressing Amour, but most likely it will be reserved
for Best Foreign Language Film. This category often goes to the actual
best picture of the year, as well as somewhat controversial movies, and
Zero Dark Thirty fits both of those descriptions. However, everyone
loves Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), and he hasn't won anything
since 1994, so it could be his year.
Will Win: Django Unchained
Should Win: Moonrise
Kingdom
Write-In: Rian Johnson, Looper
The Winner: Django Unchained
Best Screenplay (Adapted)
The thing about Oscar voters is
that they believe that anything outside the movie industry is inherently
better than anything inside it. So the Pulitzer Prize-winning playwright
Tony Kushner and his screenplay for Lincoln are simply awe-inspiring.
It's also a very wordy screenplay, which is another asset for voters.
(If it has lots of words, it must be good!) It's the front-runner.
Argo, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook are in a three-way
tie for second, and Beasts of the Southern Wild brings up the rear.
Will Win: Lincoln
Should Win: Lincoln
Write-Ins: Tracy Letts, Killer Joe, Terence Davies, The
Deep Blue Sea, David Cronenberg, Cosmopolis
The Winner: Argo
Animated Feature
This is by far the strongest category,
where even the weakest of the five nominees is still among the best
films of the year. All five are outstanding, but only one can win. We
can eliminate The Pirates! Band of Misfits and ParaNorman since they
didn't exactly set the box office afire. Brave has made the most money
of the five, but it's generally not as well-loved as other Pixar movies
have been. Frankenweenie has a tiny chance to earn a first Oscar for
the acclaimed filmmaker Tim Burton, but the front runner is probably
Disney's endlessly inventive Wreck-It-Ralph, which has a nostalgia
factor for grown-ups raised on 1980s video games.
Will Win: Wreck-It-Ralph
Should Win:
Frankenweenie
Write-In: The Secret World of Arrietty
The Winner: Brave
Foreign Language Film
As usual, the weird rules of this
category automatically eliminate most of the year's best choices (The
Turin Horse, Holy Motors, etc.). Then, for some reason Michael
Haneke's cold, cruel Amour seems to have captured the attention of
critics and moviegoers everywhere, and its popularity and five total
nominations make it an absolute certainty. On the other hand, the clever
No from Chile is a much more enjoyable film. As for the others,
they're likely destined for obscurity, as with many of the other
nominees/winners in the history of this category.
Will Win: Amour
Should Win: No
Write-In: The Turin Horse
The Winner: Amour
Documentary Feature
It's too bad that Jafar Panahi's This
Is Not a Film, which was by far the best documentary of the year,
didn't make the cut, but the five that remain are not bad. Probably 5
Broken Cameras and The Gatekeepers are the most easily eliminated.
Filmmaker Kirby Dick has been nominated before, and his The Invisible
War is about an Important Subject, but the equally Important How to
Survive a Plague is more critically acclaimed overall. Searching for
Sugar Man is the anomaly: it's the most purely enjoyable film on the
list, but enjoyment is not what this category is usually about. Will
voters go with their hearts or minds?
Will Win: How to Survive a Plague
Should Win:
Searching for Sugar Man
Write-In: This Is Not a Film
The Winner: Searching for Sugar Man
Cinematography
The great English cinematographer Roger
Deakins is just about the best in the business. He has been nominated
ten times and has never won (not even for Fargo or No Country for Old
Men). Unfortunately his nominee this year is Skyfall, which --
despite how awesome it is -- isn't weighty enough to warrant a win. Not
to mention that its main competitor, Life of Pi, has received most of
the awards season glory in this category for its spectacular, open-aired
imagery. As for Anna Karenina, Django Unchained, and Lincoln? It
was an honor to be nominated.
Will Win: Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
Should Win:
Roger Deakins, Skyfall
Write-In: Mihai Milaimare Jr., The
Master
The Winner: Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
Other Winners:
Best Editing: Argo
Best Production Design/Art Direction: Lincoln
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Best Makeup: Les Misérables
Best Score: Life of Pi
Best Song: "Skyfall," from Skyfall
Best Sound: Les Misérables
Best Sound Effects Editing: (Tie) Skyfall & Zero Dark Thirty
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Documentary Short: Inocente
Best Animated Short: Paperman
Best Live Action Short: Curfew
